Kalshi desk

Bot

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reading the switch

Today

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since the stop line

Win rate, 7 days

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against break-even

Edge check

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daily, with the spread

Next look

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nine minutes before the close

Balance

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on the crypto venue

Calendar

Risked per call

Price floor

The rule

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Buys: the favourite side, priced 80 to 95c, at the touch
When: nine minutes before the round closes
Books: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE
Holds: to settlement, no exits
Guards: follows the ask up inside the band; skips if it fell under the floor by send time; skips past 95c
Skips: the 9:45, 10:15 and 10:30 New York closes on stock-market days

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edge, 7 days

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won, 7 days

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paid

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spread

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edge, 14 days

The edge is the favourite's mispricing at the mid minus half the spread. It clears once the spread is near a cent, and not before.

Right now–

Round	Risk	Stake	Edge behind it
Sat/Sun, top of the hour	3.57x	–	+3.59c a contract
Mon-Fri, top of the hour	2.38x	–	+1.34c
Sat/Sun, off the hour	1.78x	–	+0.08c
Mon-Fri, off the hour	not traded	–	-0.80c, loses in both regimes

Raw preference is 2x on the hour and 1.5x at the weekend, divided by how often each cell comes up. So the money staked across a week is unchanged: this moves it, it does not add any. "Top of the hour" is the round closing at :00, all 24 of them, not the first hour of the day.

Risk

per call$ stop for the day-$ cap for the day$ open at once lowest price¢

Notifications

Phone notifications

Fillswhat a win pays, what a loss costs Won and losteach one as it settles Round totalsone per 15 minutes instead Exitsa position closed early Stopped for the daythe daily stop fired Out of cashnothing can place Edge turneddecay, crowding or a wide spread Daily reportthe day, week and month

quiet hours to your time. The three alarms ignore it.

Evidence, recomputed nightly

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we pay

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it wins

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break-even with fee

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edge per contract

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setups a day

Loading the live gate.

Proof, per book

Recomputed from the tape every night, not pasted in. The error bar clusters on the expiry instant, because rounds that settle together lose together: five simultaneous positions are worth about 1.7 independent bets, so an unclustered figure overstates by roughly 1.7 times.

Scope	Wins	Pays	Edge	t	Rounds

The settlement basis

Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks index averaged over the final sixty seconds. The desk records Coinbase, which runs below it. Each round's strike is the previous round's settlement value, so the gap is re-estimated from the last seven days and added to the distance before the gate reads it.

Asset	Basis		t	Rounds

Calls

Account real money

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your account, settled today

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bot orders, all time

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realized, UTC day

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open orders

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sent, of intents in 24 h

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won of settled

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signals switch

When	Note	Book	Buy	Price	Size	What happened	P&L

Research

	Tested	Market	Angle	Finding	Verdict	Fit	Holdout	1c worse	$/day

Index markets

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paper calls

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won

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P&L at the touch size

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book readings today

Rules the registry, with tonight's re-score over the whole store and the last 14 days

Rule	What it does	Status	n	net	t	14d n	14d net	win	$/day

Paper book one call per market per rule, sized to the touch, graded from the exchange result

When	Market	Rule	Side	Price	Model	At touch	Size	Left	Result	P&L

Engine roomretired paper bots, the paper switch, live books, collector ticks

Paper switch

Paper every rule, $10 a call, nothing sent

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today, held to close

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today, with model exits

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all time, held to close

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all time, with model exits

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calls today

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won today

Bots

When	Bot	Series	Rule	Buy	Price	Size	Book	What happened	P&L, exits

Rules

Bot	Rule	State	Last 20	Net 20	Net 20, exits	All time	Net, held	Net, exits	Graded today

Live board

Series	Closes in	Strike	Spot	vs open	Yes bid	Yes ask	Mid	Spread	Depth yes	Depth no	Last minute	Taker yes

Collector

Ran at	From	Rounds	Snaps	Tape	Settled	Took	Errors